The war in Ukraine has raged for nearly a year and a half and as we enter the muddy season where the offensives will evidentially die down, it seems like this a good moment for reflection.

War is horrific, and those who are fighting it know that firsthand. Russian aggression, regardless of its supposed reasons, is the cause of this conflict and Ukraine is effectively fighting a long-delayed war of independence from their former imperial power.

While scores of writings could document the suffering of the soldiers, civilians, and society, it is clear that it would be better if there were no war at all. However, on a macro lens, this war is greatly beneficial to the United States and the Western order.

At the start of the war, most observers believed Kyiv would fall in days. The Northern offensive towards the city reached the outskirts and had it not been for Russian incompetence and excellent Ukrainian defensive maneuvers, this war likely would have already been over with a Putin victory. Fortunately, the war was not over despite the conquest of the eastern half of the country from Crimea to Luhansk.

While a tactical defeat for the Ukrainians, this is a strategically disastrous position for the Russians to find themselves in. Putin and his cronies are defending a 300-mile (500-kilometer) front against an increasingly capable opponent. The bridge between Crimea and Russia has been damaged and could be indefinitely cut off through a drone strike. If the supply lines currently running through southeastern Ukraine are cut off, Russia would have to sue for peace. Despite this, Russia remains a potent force and the Ukrainian offensive has been lackluster up to this point. But it has served a strategic purpose for NATO.

NATO is benefiting in a multitude of ways from this conflict, but I will highlight three critical ways and why the support given to Ukraine thus far is well worth the minimal cost.

First, Russia is in withdrawal all over the world. Most recently, this can be seen in the lack of support for Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan. Without entering a rabbit hole, both countries have been in a conflict for decades where Armenia has been backed by Russia and they have successfully occupied many regions of the Caucasus nation. As of the end of September, Azerbaijani forces has undone all of this conquest and despite Russian peacekeepers, there was no defense mounted or intervention. This lack of support shows the limits of Russian power. The force they had in Armenia was already greatly diminished, and they did not assist their ally in a time of conflict. The withdrawal of Russian support globally will continue, as many countries formally under Moscow’s yoke directly or indirectly will be able to remove their shackles. Surely some of these countries will fall under other enemies, such as China or Iran, but will cripple the primary opponent to stability in Europe.

Second, the decoupling of Western economies and Russia will go a long way to building a better international trade system. This is part of a larger trend of decoupling of globalization that is occurring with China and the United States, and decoupling is not certainly without risk. There is a theory in the neoliberal world order that trade prevents conflict and interdependence guarantees peace. This has shown to be nonsense, as indicated by Russia being the primary supplier of oil to countries like Germany prior to the war (34% of Germany’s crude oil came from Russia in 2021, and has dropped nearly 99% in 2023). It is also worth mentioning that the largest trade relationship Great Britain had prior to WW2 was with Germany. This decoupling will enable better supply chains with friendlier nations, at the expense of some portion of the inflation we have seen in recent years. Short-term struggle for long-term gain.

Third, NATO was decaying prior to the war in Russia. With populism at home in America and assertive countries like France’s Macron decrying NATO as “brain dead”, the alliance was lacking purpose. After the disastrous withdrawal of Afghanistan under Biden and before that the denigratory tone of the previous Administration, this war has revigorated the alliance with new cause and importance. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the United States and Europe would have continued to drift as a united purpose seemed further from reach. European engagement with Russia and China at the expense of the transatlantic relationship and American exhaustion of footing the defense bill for an increasingly ungrateful alliance were and are still dangers to NATO. The war has reminded us of its purpose and our combined interests in the pursuit of peace for our member states.

Support for Ukraine has not been cheap. It’s impossible to quantify all costs associated with the support, but the outwardly reported number from January 2021 to today has been $44.5 billion according to the State Department. There have been other sources that claim $75 billion, and this doesn’t include the support given by Europe or other allies. However, it is important to remember this is not cash pallets being dropped into Kyiv. Much of this is supplies that the United Sates already had, some of which we planned to depose of anyway, that we contributed to the war effort. While supporting the military-industrial complex is not a good look, these supplies will be replaced with newer equipment. Not only that, we also will need to resupply our allies which have provided nearly $30 billion themselves. They will likely be buying American equipment. Much of the equipment supplied by Europeans is former soviet equipment… meaning the NATO alliance will have newer, highly interoperable equipment at the expense of outdated and non-useful material.

At the end of the day, no one knows how this war will end. We could look back at articles like this and determine that the support provided was excessive or contributed to the furtherance of conflict. The war could end, and we could have a neighbor to NATO armed to the teeth with Western equipment. Russia could lose so completely that they trigger their nuclear arsenal since their nation would be doomed regardless. Despite the exposure, the purpose of defense spending is for the protection of the country and our allies. The expense of ~$100 billion dollars for the depletion of an enemy, the unity of an alliance, the modernizing of NATO, and the decoupling from foes is well worth the cost.  Slava Ukraini